Battlegrounds Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan - 2023
Billed as the big semi-final before the crucial 2024 Lok Sabha Polls, the winter test of five state assemblies is expected to set a narrative Out of the five, the Congress and the BJP are pitted in a bipolar contest in three states- Chhattisgrah, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh Jist News along with The Ideas Factory Research and News Arena India carried out several rounds of ground surveys in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan , to ascertain what’s driving the voter preferences and which political outfit or narrative they are endorsing. The final outcome of the Jist Exit Poll-2023 can be summarised in two short sentences. In case of MP the contest remains tight with the Congress enjoying a 2018 assembly poll like slight edge. However the final verdict can swing in any direction In Rajasthan the voters seem to have opted to keep the state’s revolving door tradition alive with infighting in the Congress and anti incumbency against the government dwarfing the political propulsion provided by Congress Chief Minister ashok Gehlot’s welfare schemes In both states despite a negative swell against their parties the two incumbent Chief Ministers - Shivraj Singh Chauhan in MP and Ashok Gehlot remain top choices for the voters as Chief Ministerial picks PM Narendra Modi’s ratings continue to remain very high in both states which the BJP had virtually swept in 2019 Lok Sabha polls despite setbacks in both state assemblies.
RAJASTHAN Exit Poll Jist-TIF-NAI SURVEY PROJECTIONS FOR Rajasthan’s 199 seats
A) Inner strife in Rajasthan Congress fuelled by the tussle between Ashok Gehlot vs Sachin Pilot could prove to be one of the deciding factors, especially in Eastern Rajasthan. The congress had virtually swept the region in 2018.
B) Unlike past polls the Congress vote share has not suffered a major decline. The BJP vote share is projected to swing between 40-41% In comparison the Congress is projected to bag 38-39% of total votes polls
C) Despite the narrow edge in total vote share the BJP is projected to win 102-120 seats in Rajasthan assembly The Congress seat share is projected to range between 61-79 seats
D) others including small outfits like RLP and BSP and independents are projected to bag 17-27% vote share The number of seats projected for these is likely to be between 17-27.
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