Throughout the cold war, the Soviet Union dominated as a supplier of arms to the world, rivaling, and sometimes exceeding the United States as a source of global arms exports.
With the fall of the Union, the former Soviet arms industry struggled, but the Russian Federation steadily rebuilt its share of the global market, resting on a reputation as a reliable seller of 'rugged, reliable and affordable' weapons to those in the world without the diplomatic alignment, cash, or desire to purchase Western made equipment.
By 2014, Russian arms exports started to suffer reverses, damaged by sanctions and being cut off from industrial integration with Ukraine. But the industry survived.
Then February 2022 came, and an avalanche of import restrictions, banking and financial sanctions were joined with very public images of missile failures, turret tossing tanks, and an under-performing air-force. With the worst marketing one could hope for, this video explores the potential future for the Russian arms export sector, and its vital role in supporting the sustainability of Russian research and production efforts
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats:
At several points in this video I say "SU-35" when I mean "SU-75" - in these cases the slides referring to the SU-75 Checkmate are correct, I just misspeak.
I also want to note that SIPRI TIV is obviously not a perfect or the only methodology for estimating arms shipments - but the quantity and quality of the available data makes it a good source for use in my opinion.
Regarding "boomerang" faults in SAMs, I want to be clear that in all cases I have seen, including the Saudi one, the missile does not hit the launcher - I use the term because the missile hooks back In the general direction of the launcher but never hits it obviously.
I also want to stress again the difference between reputational damage and performance damage. In this video I make the case that it appears some Russian systems have underperformed - but that evidence is still needed to fully understand the reasons for those apparent failures. The point from an export perspective is that the reputational damage is more clearly taking place.
I am not, for example, saying that the T-72 was not a great tank for what the Soviets needed when it was designed and produced - only that in Ukraine, the vehicle has done its reputation no favours and that is likely to have impacts for the demand for Russian weapons going forward.
Sources (full source list delayed for a few days):
SIPRI arms registers, e.g. -
https://www.sipri.org/databases/armst...
https://armstrade.sipri.org/armstrade...
SIPRI methodology - https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/f...
Ignoring Ukraine setbacks, Putin touts 'superior' Russian weapons exports
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...
Animarchy's video which includes a discussion of Russian IADS
• The Air War in Ukraine: Who and What?
Timestamps:
00:00:00 -- Opening Words
00:00:52 -- Kyiv Arms Expo
00:01:45 -- What Am I Covering
00:02:37 -- History
00:02:39 -- USSR - The Arsenal of Everyone Else
00:04:03 -- No Need for Sticks and Stones
00:04:32 -- Russian Industry Post '91
00:05:36 -- Consolidation & Re-assertion
00:07:33 -- Understanding the Arms Market
00:09:02 -- Production Advantage: German Diesel
00:10:48 -- Diplomatic Advantage: PRC & Pakistan
00:11:55 -- What Does Russia Sell?
00:13:02 -- Russia's Market Share
00:14:13 -- Russian Air-Defence Advantage
00:15:49 -- Russian Aviation
00:17:17 -- The Buyers
00:17:32 -- Politics & Relationships
00:19:31 -- Russia's Main Markets
00:20:41 -- African Influence
00:22:11 -- Product-Purchaser Alignment
00:23:34 -- Recent Trends & Decline
00:25:06 -- Recent Trends & Decline: Line Go Down
00:25:35 -- Recent Trends & Decline: Finances & Bottlenecks
00:27:51 -- Impacts of the War-Product
00:28:13 -- Performance
00:29:41 -- Bad Equipment, Bad Plan, or Bad Army?
00:31:08 -- Reputation
00:32:07 -- WHAT AIR DEFENCE DOING
00:33:47 -- Turret Tossing Tanks
00:35:12 -- Easy Marketing
00:36:52 -- Passive Airforce
00:39:19 -- Does reputation matter?
00:40:50 -- Impacts of the War - Risk Factors
00:41:09 -- Production
00:44:35 -- Availability & Integration
00:45:05 -- Delivery & Sanction Risk
00:46:31 -- Case Studies - India
00:48:15 -- Case Studies - Vietnam
00:50:03 -- But is the Industry Stuffed?
00:52:38 -- Don't Count Russia Out
00:57:02 -- Conclusions
00:58:46 -- Channel Update
