One of the leading theories for Hamas's attack on October 7 was a desire to end normalization talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia. If Israel were to engage in large-scale countermeasures, public sentiment in the Arab world, including within Saudi Arabia, would make such an agreement infeasible. Despite this appearing to go according to plan so far, it remains possible that the strategy will backfire. What was originally holding up the deal was Israeli settlement expansion in the West Bank, which was a key part of what kept the Israeli government's coalition government together. But the attack has put the government on weak footing. As such, the net effect on the long-run normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia remains nebulous.
0:00 The Enemy of My Enemy Is My Friend?
1:46 Middle East Political Alignments
6:14 The Israeli-Saudi Normalization Process
10:27 The Hold Up to a Deal
12:33 Hamas's Preventive War
14:00 Hamas's Grand Strategic Plan
14:47 How the Plan Could Backfire
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